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Brazilian Finance Minister Compares Global Crisis to 1929 Crash PDF Print E-mail
2008 - October 2008
Written by Priscilla Mazenotti   
Thursday, 23 October 2008 23:14

Brazilian minister Guido Mantega Brazil's Finance minister, Guido Mantega, believes that the Brazilian economy should suffer a little more with the consequences of the global crisis due to the reduction of credit on the international market.

In an address to the National Congress, Mantega said that for 2008 the government still expects growth of 5% of the economy, but for the next year, the expansion of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) should be smaller. "We should therefore grow between 4% and 4.5%," said the minister.

He stated, however, that the Brazilian economy has conditions to overcome the foreign financial crisis and recalled that the government should, if necessary, continue taking specific measures aimed at minimizing the effects of the international scenery.

"The economy of Brazil is solid and prepared to face the crisis. Brazil may maintain the current cycle of growth with the maintenance of expansion of credit, investment in infrastructure and continuation of the Federal Government's Growth Acceleration Program. We believe that the country may weather a large part of these problems, maintaining the economy with good operation. It will be lower growth, though enough to guarantee the country's growth trajectory," he said.

To Mantega, the global crisis has already lived its worst phase, which was cooled by the measures taken by the rich countries, defined by the minister as the epicenter of the crisis. However, he added that the crisis is far from ending. "I do not believe that this crisis is finishing. It is a long-term crisis which is still going to cause us many headaches," he said.

The seriousness of the global crisis, according to the minister, only has a parallel in the 1929 crisis, with the Wall Street Crash. "We are facing an international crisis that is much stronger than the crises that took place in the 1990s, that is only similar to the 1929 crisis. Not due to its characteristics, as the reasons are different, but due to the repercussion," he pointed out.

According to Mantega, the power for expansion of this crisis is due to the fact that it is taking place in the center of capitalism. "The current crisis is much more serious than 90, like the crisis in Mexico, Asia and Russia. Those crises were regional, not born in the financial center. This crisis has its epicenter in the more advanced countries. It is not a crisis of billions, but of trillions, in the heart of the capitalist system, the most advanced economies."

The minister also pointed out that the crisis does not affect all countries equally and considered that the emerging economies have greater conditions to face the effects on the international markets than do the economies of developed nations. "For many years developed nations have been growing more slowly. Their local markets are already saturated. Apart from that, these countries have less solid fundaments. The United States, for example, have a fiscal and commercial deficit," he said.

The countries with emerging economies, in Mantega's opinion, posted great growth in recent years and this is a sign that they have better chances to face the mishaps of the global economy. "Growth is a sign of economic robustness. Emerging economies may replace foreign activities for internal ones. The domestic market still has space for growth. In developed nations, the domestic market does not have much space for expansion, having grown over the time," stated the minister.

"China alone has almost 2 trillion dollars in reserves," pointed out the minister. He also pointed out that financial institutions in developing nations have lower leverage. "This means that they have fewer bad papers," he said.

With regard to Brazil, Mantega suggested that the country has great potential for growth of the domestic market and reserves in dollars of around US$ 200 billion. Even the fact that the country exports little, at this moment, is a comparative advantage to the country, according to the minister. According to him, just 13% of the Brazilian GDP depends on exports.

Apart from that, Mantega also recalled the existence of high compulsory deposits. "This is considered an anomaly, and which now presents itself as something positive when compared with other nations," he said. According to Mantega, what is usual abroad is for banks to deposit from 0% to 10% of their cash deposits in central banks. In Brazil, cash deposits at the Central Bank are as high as 53%. "This allows us to increase domestic credit in a moment of crisis."

The governor of the Central Bank, Henrique Meirelles, added that the measures adopted by the institution to face the appreciation of the dollar have totaled US$ 22.9 billion up to now. The total includes both the spending of dollars in international reserves and the operation of the monetary authority in the futures market.

According to a study presented at the Lower House, the direct sale of dollars in the national reserves alone reached US$ 3.2 billion.

The Central Bank also sold US$ 3.7 billion in engaged operations, in which financial institutions purchase dollars from the Central Bank and leave guarantees in exchange. This operation does not directly consume international reserves because, on maturity of the contract, the buyer returns the dollars and the monetary authority returns the guarantees.

With the exchange swap, which operates as sale of dollars on the futures market, the Central Bank spent US$ 12.9 billion. In this transaction, the CB bets on the appreciation of the dollar and on higher interest rates. In the end, both parties exchange revenues, which, in practice, brings investors gains with the appreciation of the North American currency.

The CB, according to Meirelles, also spent US$ 1.5 billion on not extending the reverse exchange swap. In this transaction, which took place up to last month, the operation was that of an inverted exchange swap. The CB bought dollars on the futures market, helping control the depreciation of the North American currency. With the appreciation of the dollar, this operation was no longer attractive to investors.

Loans in dollars abroad to expand foreign trade, with the auctioned on Monday (20), totaled US$ 1.6 billion. In these loans, authorized by Provisionary Measure 442, which expands the powers of the Central Bank, the monetary authority loans funds from the foreign reserves to institutions that operate abroad, under the condition that the volume be applied to credit to Brazilian exporters and importers. In exchange, the financial institution leaves guarantees like credit and papers.

No Relief

The minister of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade, Miguel Jorge, said that the appreciation of the dollar against the Brazilian currency (real) does not necessarily spell relief for Brazilian exporters. "Nobody signs contracts amidst this instability," he said, referring to the strong variations in exchange that have occurred recently.

The minister also stated that the unstable exchange rate causes damage to all of those who operate in the foreign trade area, because it makes price formation difficult. He also said that, in the case of agricultural commodities, the appreciation of the dollar is partly made up for by the reduction in prices of these products on the international market.

ABr

Comments (28)Add Comment
"It is a long-term crisis which is still going to cause us many headaches,"
written by ch.c., October 24, 2008
Yesssss....so true !
But even more on the currencies front...that started only a FEW months ago !

FAR MORE TO COME NOT ONLY SOONEDR BUT ALSO LATER !

Just look at TODAY wildest currencies swings SINCE 1992 in the developed nations, ON TOP of the equities swings !
...
written by João da Silva, October 24, 2008
The seriousness of the global crisis, according to the minister, only has a parallel in the 1929 crisis, with the Wall Street Crash. "We are facing an international crisis that is much stronger than the crises that took place in the 1990s, that is only similar to the 1929 crisis. Not due to its characteristics, as the reasons are different, but due to the repercussion," he pointed out.


My fading memory recalls that 1929 crash resulted in several events in the world stage: Such as New Deal in U.S., rise of National Socialism in Germany (Hitler) , Fascism in Italy (Mussolini), East Asia Prosperity Zone (?) etc; that culminated in the "War to end all Wars".ie A war was needed to stimulate the world economy as well as reduce the population.

My question to our distinguished fellow bloggers: Are we headed to WW III?
Mantega is so" Bush"esque...
written by dnbaiacu, October 24, 2008
Mantega, the global crisis has already lived its worst phase, which was cooled by the measures taken by the rich countries, defined by the minister as the epicenter of the crisis. However, he added that the crisis is far from ending. "I do not believe that this crisis is finishing. It is a long-term crisis which is still going to cause us many headaches," he


He feeds everyone the same crap Bernake does.
It's so funny.. If everyone STOPPED. PAUSED. Made sure their neighbor has enough to eat locally , nationally and internationally. All this would come to a halt.
But what do we see? The financial herd running in panic as 20% or less of the worlds population is in FEAR of losing millions and billions of dollars . Most of which they have no idea what to do with
Answers...
written by dnbaiacu, October 24, 2008
My question to our distinguished fellow bloggers: Are we headed to WW III?


Joao...
I know must people don't want to hear or accept this. But here is some "toilet paper" prophecy.
21 for then there will be great tribulation such as has not occurred since the world’s beginning until now, no, nor will occur again. 22 In fact, unless those days were cut short, no flesh would be saved; but on account of the chosen ones those days will be cut short.
Matthew 24:22,22
“And during that time Mi′cha·el will stand up, the great prince who is standing in behalf of the sons of your people. And there will certainly occur a time of distress such as has not been made to occur since there came to be a nation until that time. And during that time your people will escape, every one who is found written down in the book.

Daniel 12:2,3
But the good news is that when THAT is all over,, this can come

The righteous themselves will possess the earth,
And they will reside forever upon it.

Psalm 37:29
But of course this has to happen before Paradise can be on earth.
 For the upright are the ones that will reside in the earth, and the blameless are the ones that will be left over in it. 22 As regards the wicked, they will be cut off from the very earth; and as for the treacherous, they will be torn away from it.
Proverbs 2:21,22
 But the nations became wrathful, and your own wrath came, and the appointed time for the dead to be judged, and to give [their] reward to your slaves the prophets and to the holy ones and to those fearing your name, the small and the great, and to bring to ruin those ruining the earth.”

Yes, the 'ruin" of those "ruining the earth" has to come. smilies/grin.gif

Which further shows to would be "believers" that the earth is here for a reason.
 For this is what the LORD has said, the Creator of the heavens, He the [true] God, the Former of the earth and the Maker of it, He the One who firmly established it, who did not create it simply for nothing, who formed it even to be inhabited: “I am the LORD, and there is no one else.
Isaiah 45:18
Many probably probably exposed to or raised in church probably don't even know these biblical truths..
smilies/sad.gif smilies/sad.gif
The masters of deception don't want you to know this. You would get closer to God that way.. Because it is the Truth (according to the Bible) and makes more sense and is more believable.
Think about it smilies/wink.gif
...
written by aes, October 24, 2008
Imagine being able to convince all of humanity that you had a book that had THE TRUTH in it and you could sell it, because everyone would want to buy it and since it was the only truth that was you could make a fortune off it, somebody is making a fortune off of the BIBLOS but nobody is paying royalties to the AUTHOR
AES
written by dnbaiacu, October 24, 2008
24 Immediately crying out, the father of the young child was saying: “I have faith! Help me out where I need faith!”


Actually royalties are being paid. It just of course they aren't financial by any means. You pay back to the AUTHOR by praising his name and spread His Truth, if you BELEIVE it to be so.

A lot "BIBLOS" are being sold for a handsome profit though. But the consumer is the one to determine what it is worth to him or her right?
**************
Changing the subject... Why does no one touch the role of the cartel that is the Federal Reserve Bank in todays crisis? Why does this have to remain this inexplicable big secret? Why does the financial community at large NOT address this. The big boys know what is going on and everyone they are hurting stays silent...
It's silly!

smilies/cry.gif
dnbaiacu
written by João da Silva, October 24, 2008
Changing the subject... Why does no one touch the role of the cartel that is the Federal Reserve Bank in todays crisis? Why does this have to remain this inexplicable big secret? Why does the financial community at large NOT address this. The big boys know what is going on and everyone they are hurting stays silent...


It is an interesting question you asked a few times and I was expecting a nice exchange of facts about the power of the Federal Reserve Bank . A few years ago, I did read about how the Federal Reserve Bank was formed to be a "Power within Power" and the resources it has to protect the almighty US$. I did mention in one of my comments about a possible new " Bretton Woods" agreement.

IMHO, your Federal Reserve is working with the Central Banks of your strong allies (Britain,Germany & Japan) to bring the whole situation under control, leaving the other weak Euro members and the "Emerging nations" to boil in their own stew. Right from the beginning I said it is US$ vs Euro. Ultimately your famous "Two horned beast" will be the victor and dominate the world, I think.

I would like to make more predictions after the Nov 4th. Regardless, one prediction I am making about Brazil for 2010. The winning candidate is going to be someone unknown to the Public at Large (though I have a strong hunch).

I think you should designate your profession as "Conspiracy Consultant". smilies/wink.gif smilies/cheesy.gif smilies/grin.gif
My fading memory recalls that 1929 crash
written by ch.c., October 25, 2008
Was due to.......LEVERAGE !
Then stocks could be bought with 10 % down payment !

Today we can buy commodities for LESS than 10 % down payment !
Yesterday.....until a year ago, banks were leveraged 30 to 1 !
Yesterday.....until 2 years ago.....in many countries, real estate could be bought with 0-5 % down payment !!!!

There was only one way to see things....UP....UP.....UP....UP....AND MORE UP !!!!!!!!!!!

Oil could only go.....UP.....UP !
Were we in a POP or POP ?
Peak Oil Production....or....Peak Oil Price ?????
99 % were 100 % sure we were in..... Peak Oil Production, since so many articles, statements, "experts".....said so !
Same for Grains !
To help the UP....UP....UP....UP, many OVER PRODUCING countries BANNED exports of rice, to habe the rice price even more....UP...UP...UP !
100 % of these countries were.....EMERGING NATIONS......NONE WERE DEVELOPED NATIONS !!!!!!!
Brazil was one of those who BANNED rice exports.

Same for wheat !
Russia and others BANNED Wheat exports.

Argentina INCREASED EXPORTS TAXES....TO MAKE wheat and soyabeans prices...LESS AFFORDABLE....to others.
Mainly the emerging nations, food IMPORTERS !!!!!!!

But you were not alone.
Developed & emerging nations SPECULATORS AND INVESTORS PUSHED also the prices....UP.......UP...UP AND UP !!!!!!
Hedge Funds did....the same !
Wall Street and European Street (smile) even INVENTED a new asset class so that even pension funds could invest in COMMODITIES BASKETS....but on a cash equivalent, not leverage. US$ 260 billion were invested in these NON leverage derivatives..... to push the prices.....UP....UP....UP !!!!!!!!!!

Welll now the prices for these crazy prices....mus be paid...the other way around !!!!!!
Classic BUBBLE !!!!!!! Impossible to define the peak......of course !
Now we know it !!!!!!

But...but...but.....WERE WE/THEY WARNED ?????
Of course YESS.

Just read this interesting article on the World Economic Forum in today Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a5JnfkstutpI&refer=exclusive

Also refer to the sentence of Buffet about the.....Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction !!!!!!

And here we are-....TODAY !!!!!! Everyone seems SURPRISED....SUDDENLY !!!!!!

BUT....BUT....BUT.....in the previous depression.....the World was NOT PREPARED !!!!!!!
Governments then did NOT provided such a massive LIQUIDITY !!!!!
And like rates hikes/reductions takes time to have their effects, so do the liquidity injections.

Conclusion :
WE WONT GO INTO A DEPRESSION, but no doubt in a severe recession.
Recessions have always proven very good to clean the excesses !!!!

Looks like you were not directly involved or spectators in previous bubbles.
I was.
I entered the world of finances in 1972 !!!!!!
I saw the oil prices going from $ 2.-/4.- to 40.- ....in 10 YEARS !
Gold going from $ 36.- to 800.- in 10 years !
THIS WAS inflationary !
The US Government issued 30 years bonds up to 14,75 %.
1-3 months interests rates were....up to 18 %

But...but...but...thhis time there WAS/IS NOOOO INFLATION !!!!!!

In my humble view :
We should be near a historical LOW !
The EXPECTED future long term return was rarely as bright !
The months of $eptember and October also tended to be the DISASTERS PERIODS MORE THAN ONCE !!!!!
Shortly there will be the U.S. elections !

This said it is scary to see the market capitalization of
GM at around US$ 4 Billion
F at around US$ 4 Billion
And so many large Brazilians companies with market capitalizations of LESS than 2 B !!!!


But....but.....but.....the solution(s) whatever they will be will avoid a DEPRESSION !!!!

NOT THE TIME TO BE BEARISH ! TOO LATE ! Just the same was true during the Bubble...IT WAS NOT THE TIME TO BE BULLISH !!!!!


But....but....but....but
THE CURRENCIES RE-ADJUSTMENT ARE BY FAR NOT OVER.
WE JUST STARTED A FEW MONTHS AGO.

But,,,but.....but...but
FAR MORE DOWN IS TO COME from Real Estate...around the world......except the USA which are probably in some type of basing patterns especially for the Residential Real Estate, but not necessarily the Commercial Real Estate especially if we enter a recession !
I repeat, the Real Estate prices in Europe and Emerging Nations have to come down FAR MORE..over the next 2 years !

Back to currencies, many countries will have to depreciate their currencies...AGAINST THE US$, in order not to sell to many of their foreign currencies reserves.
What could avoid major currencies depreciations on the other hand are newer IMF rules, where countries could quickly borrow up to 5 times their IMF quota...WITHOUT HAVING THE IMF DICTATES ANYTHING FOR THE LOANS !!!!!
Brazil for example could borrow quickly around US$ 22 billion from what I have read !

Time will tell !!!!


smilies/cool.gif smilies/shocked.gif smilies/sad.gif smilies/cry.gif
...
written by jon, October 25, 2008
"Disaster Capitalism".....by Naomi Klein

Is the universe unfolding as it should according to the Bilderbergs??
Furthermore.......
written by ch.c., October 25, 2008
From 2003-2007 The World had the HIGHEST economic growth cycle in at least 30 years !
Well...this was also a record that wont be repeated for another 20 to 30 years.
Even there we had a Bubble !

Now should come a World Recession !
What is the definition of a World Recession as per the IMF and World Bank ?
Not that dark :
BELOW 3 % ANNUAL...economic growth rate !
Will we be at 2,7 - 2,9 % ????
So far "experts" predicts 3 % for 2009 !
In general they see a recession in developed nations, but still some growth in emerging nations.
In individual countries, the recession definition is 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth.

But...but...but...the problem will remain the lendings of money to the emerging nations.
You have to move your backs to have your governments to lend YOU at more favorable rates than they do.
Because most of "our money" will naturally be lent to "our" companies, not to you, since we will need money to exit a recession !

And that is where YOU will find difficulties and many problems !

That is also why I still see the possibility of YOUR currencies going DOWN...MUCH FURTHER !

After all many emerging nations had very positive economic growth in the past but that DID NOT AVOIDED their currencies depreciation !!!!!
Brazil for example had decades of high economic growth but still had their currency depreciation more than once. So did South
America in General, Asia, South Africa, India, Russia etc etc !
Also, you are NOT going to have a HIGH economic growth rate....AS LONG AS DEVELOPED NATIONS ARE IN RECESSION !
Therefore forget China, since China will also have a lower EXPORT GROWTH rate to developed nations, even if they keep growing their economy !

I still do see a lot problems for emerging nations going forward.
And as I said, it mostly will be reflected in the currency exchange rate.
The financial herd running in panic as 20% or less of the worlds population is in FEAR of losing millions and billions of dollars . Most of which they have no idea what to do with
written by ch.c., October 25, 2008
DEAD WRONG !!!!!

It was, it is, it will be....with that money....that we bought shares in IBM, INTEL, NESTLE, UBS OR.....PETROBRAS etc etc
And it was also with that money, that lendings were made to the US government but also ALL COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD.

That money also PAID FOR YOUR EXPORTS

That money also lent to the World Bank and many supra nationals agencies !

That money also was the one FINANCING debts to our & your own companies......by buying their bonds...which aloowed creating jobs everywhere!!!!!

Who could buy equities, if there is no savings ?
Who could lend, if there is no savings ?
Who can build infrastructure, with no savings from others ?

If you dont like MONEY.......sell your iron ore to China, and compensate with China textile s!
Hmmmmm...I bet LULA would have a heart attack if hewould read this !!!!! smiles

Everything comes from savings FIRST ! Otherwise just print money as you did so many times.
Most brazilians were MILLIONAIRES in your currency in 1994.
Yessss before the peg you needed 2000 Brazilian currency unit to make ONE US$...and then 1 to 1 for the peg !!!!!

Very light....your statement !

but dont be surprised if your government (LULA or his successor) will re-enter in the similar vice.
Will he have the choice to keep HIS aura you gave him ??????
Populism on earth works the most in South America !
Yesssssss......most country bankruptcies came from South America, few from Asia or elsewhere !!!!
Your Brother Argentina, may very well have their second bankruptcy in less than 10 years !
They always beg for foreign savings to buy their US$ Government bonds and then......go bankrupt !

Ohhhhh dnbaiacu, do you think a minority elite in Brazil dont have HUGE SAVINGS...both in Brazil and Outside ?
with what money do you believe they saved ? YOUR MONEY......of course !
Corruption is just that ! Steal money from the Government. Right ?
But from where do you think your government build their purse ? WITH YOUR TAXES !

smilies/shocked.gif
Jon
written by João da Silva, October 25, 2008
It is so good to hear from you after a long time. We thought you went hibernating, though it is too early for the season.

As for your question:

Is the universe unfolding as it should according to the Bilderbergs??


This is exactly what our eminent fellow blogger DnBaiacu is asking. Of course you both were born conspirators and hence your questions do not come as a big surprise to me.

BUT....BUT.....please do pay attention to Ch.C ´s comments above.Especially regarding my question on 1929. He is on something and I wonder what? smilies/cheesy.gif

BTW, I have a theory: North American Union is more of a reality than UNASUL for several reasons. The Swiss and the Germans know about it.
...
written by jon, October 25, 2008
Joao,
I have been busy gathering food for the hiberation in the Great White North smilies/grin.gif

Your parallels are plausible as I think we are heading into a very dark period. George Orwell wrote in the book 1984 of a couple superstates engaged in perpetual warfare. This may be an over- reaching analogy but if things keep getting worse, someone is going to snap
trainer
written by doug, October 25, 2008
the dollar is going up,,wether Brasil digs itslef out. ( such low exports??) I have family living in the south of Brasil. I hope for Brasil and the future, raise the dOllAR$$$
Ch.c
written by dnbaiacu, October 25, 2008
Very light....your statement !

smilies/smiley.gif
You kind of missed my point. But maybe I wasn't quite clear.
It was not that revelant anyway, as things aren't going to change. Inequitable distribution of the worlds resources that is. smilies/angry.gif
Extreme Pessimism for the near future
written by Augustus, October 25, 2008
Unfortunately I remain extremely pessimistic about the prospects for the World Economy for several years (perhaps decades) ahead, in light of the scope of the crisis which impacted virtually every country as well as nearly every sector of the global economy.
Based on most reports I’ve read and watched in the American Media, it appears that nearly every expert on International Finance is unable to fully understand and forecast the “depth” on the ongoing decline; which is likely to be further exacerbated by the unhealthy state of the major global economies, particularly in view of the declining hegemony of the United States of American, which is unable to either provide any leadership, or exercise its “customary financial muscle” which would be required to change the current momentum during this particularly deep recession…

Naturally the timing of this crisis is rather unfortunate, since it caught America in the midst of its electoral season, thereby automatically providing additional instability and uncertainty. As mentioned elsewhere, in the event of a McCain victory (particularly with a Fanatical religious, inexperienced, and biased running mate), another Republican dominated White House is likely to trigger a series of events that may cascade America into a steeper, and even more drastic decline in terms of wealth, power, and influence across the World, thereby providing yet another blow to whichever lingering hope there may exist for a final conclusion to this crisis.

I must sadly conclude this entry with dismal expectations for the next few decades, which are likely to include significant economic hardship in the West, famine throughout most of the Third Word, along with conflict and/or civil unrest nearly everywhere… At any rate, if we take into account the deepening economic crises on top of the pre-existing Chinese rise, the never ending Middle Eastern conflicts along with the growing Islamic threat to Global Order, even if we are fortunate with the “surprising gift” of a Democratic victory next month, I fear that the difficulties we are currently enduring simply represent the very beginning of a long, chaotic period of transition which may (perhaps inevitably) result in a significant shift in the World Order.
Joao
written by dnbaiacu, October 25, 2008
I think you should designate your profession as "Conspiracy Consultant

smilies/cheesy.gif smilies/cheesy.gif smilies/cheesy.gif
It's all a conspiracy. But most of us peace loving humans can't bear the thought that it is so. That is where the you get the term "conspiracy theory". Most don't want to believe they are being duped.
Worse even more can't stand the thought that there just might be invisible beings."out to get them". They don't want to deal with that. They lose leverage on the amount of "control" they THINK they have in their lives. Once accepting that this "may"be a possibility. They are forced to admit that they need "outside" help to counteract these "outside" forces that are 'screwing " with their minds. Getting them all "FEARFUL". When all they want to do eat , drink and make love and build a house and have a nice yard,, in "peace and security".
Augustus
written by João da Silva, October 25, 2008
Extreme Pessimism for the near future


Augustus, it is good hear from you and hope your health is better now and you are fit enough to sit in front of your PC to share your words of wisdom with us. Extreme pessimism is not good for one´s health and you should bear that in mind.

Dnb and I had made some relevant questions about the "man made" crisis and especially I put forth an important question regarding the events after the great crash of 1929 and consequences to the world. Ch.C, in his customary manner, gave a long explanation assuring us that the world is not about to enter into a depression like post 1929 crash. He having entered into the "World of Finances" in 1972 and has spent 36 years analyzing the past cycles, forecasting the future trends and investing money in a profitable way. His comments regarding the future of the World economy (Especially the U.S economy ) seem quite upbeat. So you should stop being pessimistic. Needless to mention that being overly optimistic is also not very good.

As for the Brazilian economy, I am a bit more pessimistic.But...But......., who knows this may be a good lesson for our populist "rulers" so that they will cut down their "Bull-shit" about how "good" they are towards the "poor" and start thinking about much needed (and delayed) reforms to really help the have nots by generating decently paid jobs . In this aspect, the outcome of the Municipal election in SP tomorrow might be an eye opener.

As for your worry about the "Islamic Threat", quit worrying. They are not any threat to the so called "Western Civilization". Listen to the speech given by Powell endorsing Obama. You will feel good.

Cheer up. Where there is life, there is still hope. The world is not about to fall.
dnbaiacu
written by João da Silva, October 25, 2008
Getting them all "FEARFUL". When all they want to do eat , drink and make love and build a house and have a nice yard,, in "peace and security".


Right. You can use all sort of "Fear" to control peace loving citizens of the World, when they merely want to " eat , drink and make love and build a house and have a nice yard". One expression that some ancient Guru in Conspiracy Theory coined was "God Fearing Christian". This expression has a fundamental flaw in the sense that he did not take into consideration the "God fearing Muslims, Jews, Buddists, Hindus or other minority religions in the world".

As I said before, all the religions have their good points and basically it is left to the individual to read what his/her respective religion says and get the best of out of it. But....But...., to create conflicts between peoples of different religions is the mischievous conspirators who are on a mere power trip to satisfy their egos (and to keep the have nots where they are). For example, how many Americans knew about OBL and that one eyed Mullah Omar before 911? How many Americans know that OBL fought against the Soviets during their war against Afghanistan? So during the past 7 years, the Brand name "OBL" is being promoted (I bet he is Laughing his A off, if at all he is still alive) to put the "Fear" of "Islamic Terrorists" out to get the "God Fearing Christian West".

I get a big kick when the "Fundamentalists" of any religion rant and rave about their "fundamentals" and promoting "Fear" among the populace saying that the "End" is very near "unless they adhere to the fundamentals" their respective Messiahs taught them!

As for me, I am happy to have friends of all religions from all over the world. When we meet, we avoid getting into religious discussions. We prefer to discuss ideas and not religions. It is more of a fun to build and NOT to destroy. There was a blogger in this site who used to go by the screen name of "João Pinga" (he vanished) who used to say that he believed more in "like minded folks getting together and building a deck together than kneeling on the floor and praying to some unknown entity to donate the deck".

BTW, the "True and Honest Conspirators" will agree with my viewpoints. smilies/wink.gif

Thanks for listening to my rants and standby for more of them after Nov4th. smilies/cheesy.gif
JOAO - Acknowledging One’s Proclivity...
written by Augustus, October 25, 2008
Joao
Firstly, I would to like to express my thanks for your noble attempt to brighten up my relatively glum outlook, and for directing my attention to alternative outcomes, whereby milder disturbances would be expected from the current global crisis. As I am fully aware of my general proclivity to adopt cynical and pessimistic positions when the issue(s) under consideration bear(s) significant threatening impacts, I often struggle to glimpse beyond bleak horizons and fail to perceive or recognize some of the existing positive, brighter side of any given situation; thereby being the perpetrator of unnecessary self-inflicted distress – at least fortune has bestowed me with the necessary tools to recognize, comprehend, and acknowledge the existence of these misguided tendencies…

Yet, I’m thankfully strong enough to remain untouched by the necessity to access any “irrational philosophies” to inspire or guide my actions, which are solely based on either Human deeds (or occasionally on cosmic phenomena). Although I occasionally adopt unhealthy perspectives by expecting “the most horrific outcome” (or “cataclysmic”), is approach takes into account the blood Historical record of Human civilization (as well as the violent scientific record of several cataclysm events which impacted our planet during its 4.6 billion years of existence). Indeed, as much as I may suffer by succumbing to gloomy such prospects, I’m delighted for having at lest escaped the far worse fate of those who benefit from self-delusional methods of seeking solace, explanation, or council from the illusive “sources” - I shall always thoroughly refute the possibility of the alleged impact of so-called “invisible beings!”

Hopefully, the ch-c estimates, which you have kindly brought to my attention, will prove my fears to be completely unfounded, with forecast that this recession would not turn into a “1929-like” depression (actually, I was expecting it to be far worse than any other in recorded history). Because I lack the necessary tools to make any detailed economic analysis (and surely not to the level of the Swiss Blogger), I have simply relied on my very basic overall information vis-à-vis significant knowledge of Western History, along with the worse possible expectations regarding the Human potential to commit terrible deeds, particularly in times of challenging conditions...
More "coup" of the world
written by dnbaiacu, October 26, 2008
What could avoid major currencies depreciations on the other hand are newer IMF rules, where countries could quickly borrow up to 5 times their IMF quota...WITHOUT HAVING THE IMF DICTATES ANYTHING FOR THE LOANS !!!!!
Brazil for example could borrow quickly around US$ 22 billion from what I have read !


Hopefully people will understand where this is going ,,,,, and "GET IT".
Funny thing is , I think most people do , but are AFRAID to admit it smilies/wink.gif
dnbaiacu
written by João da Silva, October 26, 2008
Hopefully people will understand where this is going ,,,,, and "GET IT".
Funny thing is , I think most people do , but are AFRAID to admit it


I think that you were born "Conspirator" and need no further training. smilies/cheesy.gif smilies/grin.gif

But...But.... do you think that you can cheer up our "Aristocratic" fellow blogger Lord Augustus, with your witty comments (without quoting our beloved "Book") ? If you refuse to cheer him up, I am afraid that we have to resort to our powerful contacts in Switzerland and Canada. smilies/cheesy.gif smilies/grin.gif
According to "illusive soures"....
written by dnbaiacu, October 26, 2008
In accord with Ch.c things will get "scary enough" just to get most "worshiping the "wild beast". smilies/wink.gif smilies/wink.gif
As we can ALL see , most people don't worship things they don't "believe"

And there was granted it to give breath to the image of the wild beast, so that the image of the wild beast should both speak and cause to be killed all those who would not in any way worship the image of the wild beast.

16 And it puts under compulsion all persons, the small and the great, and the rich and the poor, and the free and the slaves, that they should give these a mark in their right hand or upon their forehead, 17 and that nobody might be able to buy or sell except a person having the mark, the name of the wild beast or the number of its name.
Revelation 13:15-17
When you are IN DEBT, you are obliged to comply , "compulsed". ie .. on a NATIONAL level the IMF. On an individual level you credit cards or better yet "mortage brought from "Fannie and Freddie by ..... GUESS WHO?

Many will really "believe" in the wild beast.. THE UNITED NATIONS... Most will obliged themselves to "go with the flow"
For those that "refuse" the mark , ... it will be quite difficult.. On an individual and national level.
The United States in conjucntion with Great Britain will be the sexiest cheerleaders for the United Nations. Remember.. the U.S is the worlds biggest IMF , World Bank contributor. smilies/wink.gif
And just WHO is this pope that just blessed the UNITED NATIONS this year? Decrying ISLAMIC TERRORISM.. What is going to be the fallout from that? smilies/wink.gif Is anyone so discerning to just look at a muslim and determine whether or not they are an "extremist" or not? Let's not forget just how "xenophobic" our "Western and supposedly "ciivilized' society is. smilies/cheesy.gif smilies/grin.gif

If you need a little "GOOD NEWS".. Go all the way to the end of Revelation.. Chapters 21 and 22. You can be a part of that!
We all have 24 hours in a day ... To CHOOSE,, to get some KNOWLEDGE.
Then if our "motives are good" (heart) .. we may get to that "happily ever after".. ..
Paradise.
Isn't it funny that that is what "Hollywood is all about? Stories about the battle between "GOOD and EVIL'.. That desire to live "HAPPILY EVER AFTER" .. Like you are in the GARDEN OF EDEN or something.?????
Can that REALLY be an coincidence or an accident,, that that is in our pysche.? And that we consistently want to "entertain ourselves with that?

HELLO>>>>>> WAKE UP.!
This is not about RELIGION...
IT IS ABOUT YOU smilies/wink.gif
dnbaiacu
written by João da Silva, October 26, 2008
HELLO>>>>>> WAKE UP.!
This is not about RELIGION...
IT IS ABOUT YOU


You are becoming more and more ruthless conspirator. smilies/cheesy.gif smilies/grin.gif smilies/wink.gif
INDIGNATION, PROTEST AND SERIOUS CONSIDERATIONS…
written by Augustus, October 26, 2008
JOAO
As already extensively elaborated in other threads, I understand the futility of questioning the unfortunate individuals who remain shackled to dogmatic fanaticism, as they tend to recur to disturbingly distorted logic, whereby their God’s omnipresence and “so-called wisdom” lies behind every issue and event, and explaining the “Divine refusal” to interfere in human affairs as a part of some (idiotic) deliberate divine plan to “test their faith”; and/or attribute to acts for some equally absurd Devil (what the fanatics refer to evil is simply part of human condition)… Any issue, any challenge, and any attempt to sparkle enlightenment into their midst is generally perceived as some absurd manifestation of Satan and/or part of the “mysterious ways” of Divinity to challenge “wicked human sinners to repent”…

Quite frankly JOAO, my limited patience with the persistence of fanatical religious conduct has nearly expired, as cannot allow such intolerable manifestations of primitive human behavior to continuously disturb me to such a point where I find myself exceedingly angry… Unfortunately, I must avoid unnecessary exposure to situations where my health and overall well-being may be potentially threatened by the inconsiderate (and quite deliberate) deed of others…
Absolutely Hilarious!
written by dnbaiacu, October 26, 2008
smilies/cheesy.gif smilies/grin.gif smilies/cheesy.gif smilies/grin.gif
INDIGNATION, PROTEST AND SERIOUS CONSIDERATIONS…


It is soooo funny... You can appreciate the beauty of a flower. Bask in the scent of the perfume it can produce. The feeling of "penis" meeting "vagina".
You can be amused by playing animals. See in color. Taste a variety of foods. And the sheer "order" in the universe just came about by some inexplicable "spark of energy" from nowhere. Or a result of some "organic soup".. smilies/cheesy.gif smilies/cheesy.gif smilies/cheesy.gif smilies/cheesy.gif No need to go further on the pleasures of the human experience. Those that understand.. Understand.
All accident? Just chance?.... Many of us get the point. Call it "fanatical" if you want . I am just vocal about a different point of view. Some are just as vocal about the opposing view.
Have you ever thought about why some people need anti-depressants? .. Obviously there is some type of recognized "standard" for emotional equilibrium. Which theorectically would'nt make a difference one way or another from a purely evolutionary standpoint ... Right? smilies/wink.gif
All that is necessary is to "eat and reproduce"..??? RIGHT? Think about it..
my limited patience with the persistence of fanatical religious conduct has nearly expired, as cannot allow such intolerable manifestations of primitive human behavior to continuously disturb me to such a point where I find myself exceedingly angry… Unfortunately, I must avoid unnecessary exposure to situations where my health and overall well-being may be potentially threatened by the inconsiderate (and quite deliberate) deed of others…

You are so self-revealing. smilies/wink.gif Really, I don't try to irritate you personally. But the reality is, that in the end all the fingers point back to US. And some of us JUST CAN'T TAKE IT.

 For the word of God is alive and exerts power and is sharper than any two-edged sword and pierces even to the dividing of soul and spirit, and of joints and [their] marrow, and [is] able to discern thoughts and intentions of [the] heart. 13 And there is not a creation that is not manifest to his sight, but all things are naked and openly exposed to the eyes of him with whom we have an accounting. Hebrews 4:12,13
IT CUTS LIKE A KNIFE, DOESN'T IT? smilies/wink.gif smilies/cheesy.gif
But leave it to us" fools "to believe this way.. It's a free world. smilies/smiley.gif (at least on this end of the planet) I need to exercise my freedom of speech NOW. TRUST.. It is already written where I will be putting my very life in danger expressing myself like this. NOT in the too far future.
And I am SURE you will be happy..?????
Or will you? smilies/wink.gif Is the bigger question. smilies/wink.gif
Everyone just wants to be HAPPY...
HELLLOOOOO
dnbaiacu
written by João da Silva, October 27, 2008
Give up your efforts to get our Lord Augustus to read "The Book". He has confessed several times that he prefers to read the books written by Ken Follet (like I do). Our two favorite "Books" are "The Pillars of the Earth" and "World Without End". I suggest you read these two books (if you have not done already) to pick up some good ideas from the ancient architecture and civil engineering to be applied in constructing your "Pousada".

It is easier to convert Ch.C to Islam than to persuade the our Lord to read the Bible. smilies/cheesy.gif smilies/grin.gif

Cheers
Joao....
written by dnbaiacu, October 27, 2008
Like I told Augustus on another thread, I am not trying to convert or persuade anyone. I just want to be informative on a VERY real topic as everyone will see shortly as they relate to world events.
EVERYTHING that is happening is already written. The weakening of the U.S . But NOT to obliteration , as Ch.c suggests. The strengthening of an idealogically opposing contender as can be seen in China. And the eventual gathering of nations with a "common enemy".
Just being informative , nothing more nothing less. Many express their opposition to this. But you don't worry about that.. A "light" turns on in "some". And that's what matters to me. God takes it from there. Dyametric opposition IS TO BE EXPECTED. It's physics.. Pure SCIENCE. "Thoughts are in fact,, THINGS". We are all governed by "laws of attraction" and all that "metaphysical" stuff. And EVERYTHING is in your HEAD.
It is amusing and sad for the most part that some give the impression that their lives aren't guided by anything but what they have conjured up in their own imagination. Simply not true... Everyone is influenced by something. Majority of the U.S constitution was founded on "judaic/christian principles albeit complied to "when convenient". And all U.S reap some benefits from the tenets "LIFE < LIBERTY and HAPPINESS> .. Yet they bash the very book the "founding fathers" got some of the principles from. ???? It is SILLY smilies/cheesy.gif smilies/cheesy.gif
Why don't they just go to some primitive place where they worship the sun or something.? Is that the better alternative for them? Of course NOT!
They enjoy it here or in any other western society. ...But from where were the majority of the principles in the constitutions of these countries based.... You can trace it all the way back to the bible. That's where the word "christendom" comes from .. Christian based kingdoms.
These types always call "believers' like us ,, silly.
But the truth is ,, we are all silly smilies/wink.gif smilies/wink.gif
We "grow up " when we acknowledge who the "real man is" and imitate him...
But that's a choice smilies/wink.gif
I choose to share facts about that choice with others. Just as the "enlightened" choose to share with others their theories on "Big Bang" and "organic soup" . Neanderthal , and "Lucy".
I want real hope.. Refusing to be guided by limited human beings that eat , poop and sleep just like I do . smilies/cheesy.gif smilies/smiley.gif smilies/cheesy.gif smilies/smiley.gif

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