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José Serra Odds-on Favorite as Next Brazil President, After Lula's Setback PDF Print E-mail
Written by Newsroom   
Monday, 27 October 2008

Gilberto Kassab, mayor of São Paulo, Brazil Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his party, the PT (Workers Party) suffered a serious blow Sunday, October 26, in  Brazil's main city São Paulo, where incumbent conservative mayor Gilberto Kassab comfortably won a second period, defeating Marta Suplicy in the run off by over 20 points.

Although Lula's Workers Party is poised to gain power in six big cities, totaling 3.4 million voters, it lost the biggest prize and springboard for the next presidential election in 2010, the city of São Paulo, which offers over 8 million voters.

Kassab, from the DEM party, won with 60.72% of the votes against his opponent, Marta Suplicy's 39.28%. His victory boosts the opposition's chances for the presidential election of 2010, when Lula da Silva is banned from running for a third mandate.

However in Rio do Janeiro, Eduardo Paes, candidate for the Brazilian Democratic Movement, PMDB, and an important ally of President Lula da Silva won a narrow victory in the run off against Fernando Gabeira from the Green Party, an ex-guerrilla who once kidnapped a US ambassador. The result was 50.83% for Paes against 49.17% for Gabeira.

In São Paulo both candidates ran on similar platforms, but Suplicy, who served as Tourism minister in Lula's administration and is a former São Paulo mayor has been shunned because of personality and perceptions of arrogance, said David Fleischer, a political scientist at the University of Brasília.

Despite the global financial crisis that has cut Brazil's currency by half, none of the leading candidates backed off promises of improved roads, schools, and public transportation and health services.

In Brazil, mayors are powerful vote gatherers in nationwide presidential and congressional elections. Kassab's victory means he almost certainly will back the candidacy of São Paulo State Governor José Serra, according to Fleischer. Lula beat Serra in Brazil's 2002 presidential race.

"Serra will not only win his party's nomination, he stands a good chance of winning the 2010 elections," Fleischer said.

In Rio de Janeiro, Fernando Gabeira, 67, a guerrilla-turned-congressman who in 1969 masterminded the abduction of the US ambassador to Rio, Charles Elbrick, to protest the military dictatorship, was in a technical tie with his opponent before momentum shifted to Eduardo Paes, 39.

Gabeira is one of several former revolutionaries who are heavily involved in current politics. Lula's Social communication minister, Franklin Martins, also took part in Elbrick's kidnapping, and chief of staff Dilma Rousseff, a likely presidential contender in 2010, played a leading role in the armed resistance to the 1964-1985 dictatorship.

President Lula's Workers' Party put in a strong showing in first-round voting October 5, winning elections in 137 cities including six of 27 state capitals.

Bzz/Mercopress

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written by João da Silva, October 27, 2008
Kassab, from the DEM party, won with 60.72% of the votes against his opponent, Marta Suplicy's 39.28%. His victory boosts the opposition's chances for the presidential election of 2010, when Lula da Silva is banned from running for a third mandate.


I liked the result of the election for the Mayor of SP. The "Paulistanos" clearly demonstrated through the ballots that they were quite unhappy with the Labor party and its candidate. They voted for a one that talks less and is more action oriented. Kassab is an Engineer and Economist and a large city like SP needs an technocrat as a mayor to solve its problems.
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At least Brazil’s largest metropolis demonstrates superior political decision against repugnant labor candidate
written by Augustus, October 27, 2008
At least Brazil’s largest metropolis demonstrates superior political decision against repugnant labor candidate

Considering the distressing nature of the Brazilian Political Arena, where the overwhelming majority of politicians are thoroughly corrupt, particularly the members of the repulsive Labor Party, it is scarcely surprising that an exceedingly ignorant populace (such as the citizens of Rio de Janeiro – shamefully my city of birth) repeatedly select such scoundrels to positions of power.

At the very least the awe-inspiring reports of a significant Labor defeat in Brazil’s wealthiest, most cosmopolitan, and sophisticated city has filled my heart with joy and hope for Brazil’s future…

Consequently, I congratulate the wise choice made by the citizens of Pauliceia!
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Joao
written by VinnyCarioca, October 28, 2008
They voted for a one that talks less and is more action oriented. Kassab is an Engineer and Economist and a large city like SP needs an technocrat as a mayor to solve its problems.

Hello my classy dear fellow, as the gringoist of gringos, allow me to ask a perceptively simplistic question- would Curitiba be the benchmark as to what an ideal Brazilian city would emulate? From my limited purview of Brazilian economics and sociology, how would Kassab achieve such a benchmark in a run-away type of criminal environment comparable to my hometown of New York City in the early 1990's? Is he willing to take down the corrupted forces of, say, the First Capital Command (similar to the Costra Nostra in N.Y.C) and adopt a "broken windows policy" intolerance to achieve such? How would that be received by Pauliceia in the backdrop of an economy appearing to proverbially be circling the drain?
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VinnyCarioca
written by João da Silva, October 28, 2008
Vinny, my dear fellow, nothing gives me more pleasure than answering the mind stimulating questions asked by another classy and erudite person such as your good self. Before I answer your question, let me welcome you back to the blog, stressing once again the importance of your contributions to enrich the knowledge of all of us.

would Curitiba be the benchmark as to what an ideal Brazilian city would emulate? From my limited purview of Brazilian economics and sociology, how would Kassab achieve such a benchmark in a run-away type of criminal environment comparable to my hometown of New York City in the early 1990's?


I have lived in Curitiba, while being just a visitor to SP. Curitiba started getting industrialized during the Brazilian Economic "Miracle" of the late 60s and 70s and the people in charge (mostly technocrats) paid much more attention to "urban planning" taking into consideration the demographic and economic factors, while building the infrastructure.However, the city of SP received far more migrants from all over the country (especially from the North East) in search of jobs in the industries and other business houses. In my opinion, the infrastructure did expand ,but not enough to cope up with the population growth.ie inadequate planning. After 1985, the city was taken over by elected politicians that let the existing infrastructure fall into pieces, instead of maintaining and expanding (due to various reasons including the inability of the Labor government to talk less and plan and execute projects). I am told that Kassab, being a technocrat, intends reversing the decline.

São Paulo emulating Curitiba as the bench mark city? Not possible. Because of the population size . The SP municipality has around 11.5 Million population (not taking into account the surrounding municipalities) while Curitiba has just 1.8 Millions. Curitiba also reelected a Mayor from the opposition in the first round itself. He got about 70 % of the votes against his opponents, though the labor party bosses campaigned heavily in favor of its lady candidate.

So put it in a nutshell, the job of Kassab is to renovate and rebuild the infrastructure and plan for the future and the job of the mayor of Curitiba (his name is Richa) is to ensure that the city does not explode like SP. Some of his opponents claim that he wants the city to grow like SP. I certainly would not like to see that happening. The population there is growing at an annual rate of 1.7% , inviting immigrants from the rural areas and other states. I think that the state government of Parana should concentrate more on creating job opportunities in other cities like Maringa , Londrina, etc;

From my limited purview of Brazilian economics and sociology, how would Kassab achieve such a benchmark in a run-away type of criminal environment comparable to my hometown of New York City in the early 1990's? Is he willing to take down the corrupted forces of, say, the First Capital Command


We are asking too much of Kassab, as a Mayor!! It is the job of the State governor and to certain extent Federal. We have armed (and uniformed) state troopers and armed plain clothed police (We call them Policia Civil). Also in certain cities, we have Municipal police. I think that such gangs like the one in NYC can be handles either by our State troopers (Governor can authorize to use them) or if they cant handle, he needs to request the President to send in the Army.

I hope I answered your questions. Let me hasten to add that the views expressed above are mine and if there are other bloggers who live in Curitiba and SP in this site, it would be interesting to hear their opinion.



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