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 The economies of Latin America are forecasted to expand 0.7% this year, well below the 4.2% of 2008, but a surprising performance, if proved right, when all major economies face negative estimates.
A report from the Bank of America-Merrill Lynch says this would be the lowest expansion of the region since the credit crisis of 2002, which saw the melting of the Argentine economy and contagion expand to neighboring countries.
Regional growth will be led by Peru, with an estimated expansion of 4.1% in 2009, while in the other end Mexico is expected to undergo a contraction of 1.5%, according to economist Felipe Llanes from Merrily Lynch Latinamerica.
Brazilian GDP is expected to expand 1.3% this year while Argentina and Chile will grow 1.6% and Colombia 2%.
"Annual growth in most countries of the region will bottom out in the third quarter of 2009, although for a few it will extend until the fourth quarter," said the report.
Nevertheless, "we don't see a gradual recovery until 2010, with regional growth reaching 3.1%, which is still below its potential," added the report from Llanes.
Regarding inflation, consumer prices in the region are estimated to average 4.3% in 2009 and again 4.3% in 2010, which is considerably modest compared to the 6.6% of 2008.
Mercopress
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"Brazil Confident It Will Grow Above World Average"....Brazil WILL HAVE 4 % GROWTH RATE ! GUARANTEED AS PER ROBBING HOOK.
Brazil is immune ! Dont forget his last summer prophecy !
And also dont forget his 2003 promises, repeated yearly : 5 % growth rate guaranteed for yearssss to come !
Reality was so shameful that to not be red faced as he usually is, he ordered Mantega to invent a new "methodology" in 2007, right after his re-election. And then after having given orders to Mantega "cheat, lie, hide and manipulate as much as necessary the spreadsheet, but if you dont come up with a historical new "revised" stats showing close to 5 % growth, Mantega you will be
FIRED "
Therefore as a good lieutenant, Mantega at his turn ordered the maths teachers in SP University and CEPEAL : "you better find a new methodology otherwise you will be fired before I will be fired myself. HURRY UP "
And so came up the new methodology in 2007 !
Then Robbing Hook assured and guaranteed that 5 % annual growth is guaranteed until 2017 MINIMUM !
The problem is that 2009 will look quite tough to get 5 % or near this.
DONT WORRY....DONT WORRY.....BRAZILIANS, ROBBING HOOK MAY AS WELL BY NEXT YEAR THREATENS AGAIN TO FIRE SOME PEOPLE...IF A NEWER AND MORE "ACCURATE" METHODOLOGY...is not going to show a close to 5 % growth rate FOR 2009.
Cooking the books is Robbing Hook speclalty.