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Lula's Prediction: In 10 Years Brazil Will Be World's Third Biggest Economy PDF Print E-mail
Written by Newsroom   
Saturday, 19 September 2009

São Paulo at night Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva predicts that Brazil in the near future will be in the short list of the world's largest economies, probable in third or fourth position, and if "less lucky" at the most ranked fifth.

"In ten to fifteen years this country should be the world's third or fourth economy, and if we are not lucky, the fifth economy," said Lula in a speech in Rio Grande do Sul, in the Brazilian South.

For this to happen Lula says it will be essential for more poor Brazilians to "become middle class," have more students in universities and more youths training in different trades, but above all Brazil "must improve the quality of its education, curricula and the working of the system."

"What matters in the XXI century is exporting knowledge, intelligence, that's what really makes the difference," he added.

Brazil currently ranks as the world's tenth economy behind G-7 members (US, UK, Japan, Germany, Italy, France and Canada) plus China and Spain. Brazil's GDP, Latin America's largest is estimated in US$ 1.3 trillion.

According to the latest data from the Brazilian government the economy expanded 1.9% in the second quarter of this year compared to the first quarter, thus technically overcoming recession which was installed since last March, following three consecutive negative growth quarters.

Mercopress

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economy size
written by sage, September 19, 2009
these stats are wrong & based on exchange rate distortions, etc. brazil is currently
the world's 6th biggest economy w/ a gdp in excess if U$2 trillion. Also keep in mind
that the overly strong euro grossly overstates the size of the limey, frog, wop &
spic economies.

i expect the usual negative comments on this blog following this entry.
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written by observer, September 19, 2009
Big enough to overtake India, the US or Japan??
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written by sage, September 20, 2009
china #1, us #2, brazil #3 in terms of size. india w/b in the top 5 maybe, but has too many intractable problems.
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brazil is currently with a us$ 2 TRILLION ECONOMY !
written by ch.c., September 20, 2009
WRONG...DEAD WRONG !
Correct only if PPP adjusted. And the PPP is dead wrong too ! Because countries like Brazil get a credit in their Actual GDP for several reasons well known...BUT NOT A DEBIT IN THEIR PPP due to your
- STILL THE WORLD HIGHEST GOVERNMENT RATE...AFTER INFLATION !
- THE VERY HIGH IMPORT TAX RATE OF CARS,PCS, Iphones & Ipods being the World Most Expensives, etc etc etc
- 10-11 % Mortgage rate, 25-30 % on cars leasing, 39-50 % of Appliances instalments, 40-200 % on personal loans, and about
180-200 % on overdrafts, while in my country - Switzerland FOR EXAMPLE - one of the most "taxed" in the PPP formula ON EARTH our mortgage rate is 3 %, car leasing 0 to 5 %, appliances at about 0 to 12, personal bank loans at about 6 to 15 %, and your Iphones Ipods cost about 80 % more than in my country. Therefore getting the Correct Credits on your PPP and not the Appropriate DEBITS...IS SOMEWHAT DEEPLY ERRONEOUS !

But I understand the tricks made by the World Bank and the IMF which are "understandable" PURE stats manipulation.
How ? Simple.... :
1) Poorer countries get a CREDIT IN THEIR PPP....so that Less Poor they appear comparatively. And Their Governments are less RED FACED when they talk to their own citizens !
2) Wealthiest countries get a DEBIT IN THEIR PPP...so that Less Rich they appear comparatively. And Their Governments are less RED FACED when talking to the.....POORER GOVERNMENTS !

Just think about it for a moment how true this is...SADLY FOR YOU AND HAPPILY FOR US !

IN CONCLUSION YESSSSSS.....VIVA THE DISTORTED PPP ! And I really mean it.
In my view the PPP should be even MORE MANIPULATED..... IN YOUR FAVOR !
So that emerging nations with Brazil the World Best (as Brazil cant stop repeating) can continue to caress their navel time and again also for the next decades !

Outisde of this it is obvious that all GDP are adjusted for their currency swings....CONTRARY TO WHAT YOU STATED !
Brazil Total GDP MORE THAN DOUBLED...just because your currency doubled from its 2002-2003 LOWS...OBVIOUSLY !
Brazil was well below a US$ ONE TRILLION ECONOMY in 2002-2003.
jUST READ AGAIN : even yourself just as myself are talking in US$ and nothing else.thus yessss once more, currency swings definitely matters in GDP for country comparisons purposes.
OTHERWISE NO ONE COULD MAKE EVEN A COMPARISON.

Brazil would already be WORLD NUMBER TWO....if they did not take out their 12 zeroes off their currency over the last 70 years.....OBVIOSULY !
Yess..."ONLY" second because surpassed easily by....GUESS WHO ?

Z I M B A B W E !!!!!!!

And the USA, and the EU Countries in the Euro zone all combined would be THE POOREST ON EARTH...BY DEFINITION....IF CURRENCY SWINGS ARE NOT TAKEN IN ACCOUNT as you suggested !!!!!

And last but not least :
It seems TOTALLY NORMAL TO ME THAT A COUNTRY OF LET SAY BRAZIL WITH A POPULATION OF 200 MILLIONS HAVE ALREADY
A LARGER GDP, EVEN BEFORE PPP, THAN LET SAY SWITZERLAND WITH A POPULATION OF 7,8 MILLIONS !

Right ? smilies/grin.gif

Now on your exsports PROWESS you stood at about US$ 200 billion in 2007, or about US$ 1000.- per capita ! cORRECT ?
Well my country stood at about US$ 25'000.- PER CAPITA !
Thus if you double and double and double again (not an easy task for sure) Brazil would still export 1/3rd of my country...per CAPITA PROVIDED WE DONT NOT GROW AT ALL ....OF COURSE !!!!!

YOU BETTER STOP GOING TO THE BEACH FOR THE NEXT 100 YEARS OR SO !
And stop all your vacations, work 7 days a week, and 13-15 hours a day to just arrive Eventally at 1/3rd of our exports....PER CAPITA !
smilies/grin.gif smilies/grin.gif smilies/grin.gif smilies/grin.gif smilies/grin.gif smilies/grin.gif smilies/grin.gif smilies/grin.gif smilies/grin.gif smilies/grin.gif smilies/grin.gif smilies/grin.gif smilies/grin.gif smilies/grin.gif smilies/grin.gif
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written by observer, September 21, 2009
Goldman Sachs has commented recently that an united Korea would have the potential to be #3
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observer
written by sage, September 21, 2009
that is why there is no interest on the part of japan, china & usa to see a united korea.

c.hc. as usual working overtime while his country is being taken over by german & russian interests
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