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Four surveys in a row have given Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva enough votes to win reelection by a large margin, large enough to avoid the need of a second round: Sensus, DataFolha, Ibope, Vox Populi
The last poll guaranteeing Lula's reelection in the first round comes courtesy of Ibope, Brazil's most traditional polling institute. It confirms data revealed earlier this week by two other survey companies: Sensus and Data Folha. Ibope's results were announced Thursday night, August 10, by Globo TV's Jornal Nacional, Brazil's main prime-time TV news show. In that poll, Lula appears with 46% of intentions of vote while his closest opponent, Geraldo Alckmin, from the PSDB party, manages to get a mere 21%. Senator Heloísa Helena comes in third with 12% of the votes. Two other candidates, Cristovam Buarque and Rui Pimenta get 1% each. While 10% of Brazilian voters are still undecided on who to choose, 9% intend to leave their ballots blank or to void them as a way of protest. Not voting is not an option since the vote in Brazil is mandatory and non compliance can mean fines and other sanctions like not getting a passport. Ibope's poll showed a pronounced bigger gap between Lula and former São Paulo governor Alckmin, The difference between the two frontrunners went from 19 to 25 percentage points. Lula gets 44% of the votes, while Alckmin gets 25%. Curiously, the growth in popularity by Lula didn't rub on his administration, which was considered regular or bad by 62% of the voters. Ibope listened to 2002 voters between August 7 and 9. The study has a 2% margin of error. In the Vox Populi survey the difference between Lula and Alckmin jumped 10 percentage points going from 11% to 21%. The poll, prepared for magazine Carta Capital, was divulged yesterday by Bandeirantes TV. Lula's growth was once again dramatic when compared to the previous poll held in July. Lula has today 45% of the votes (he had 42%) against Alckmin's 24% (he had 32% one month ago). Vox Populi heard 2.004 voters in 121 cities between the August 5 and 7. Alckmin did not make fun of the last two surveys, as he had done when the two previous polls were released earlier this week. While he called the first two surveys a joke, he has accepted with resignation the new results: "We are still in a good position," he said, adding: "It's a good thing to start the campaign putting on the humbleness sandals." He promises that things will start to change for the better next week, when his free electoral programs start to be aired on radio and TV.
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