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 Brazilian financial institutions heard for the Focus Bulletin research, made by Brazil's Central Bank, believe that Brazil's economy should grow below the 4.5% target established by the government in its Growth Acceleration Program (PAC).
According to the just-released report, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP, the sum of all the riches produced in the country) will end 2007 with a 4.1% growth. The previous week the research had shown the same numbers. And for three weeks in a row now the forecast for 2008 is for a 4% growth in the GDP.
According to these analysts, the industrial production will grow 4% in 2007 and 4.4% next year.
In their evaluation, the overvalued dollar in relation to the real will not jeopardize exports. The experts are betting that the trade balance will end the year with a US$ 40 billion surplus. This amount is US$ 10 million less than the US$ 40,01 billion shown in the preceding survey.
Projections for the American dollar keep on falling. Analysts believe that the dollar will close 2007 at 2.05 reais - just one cent less than last week's forecast. For the end of 2008, the estimate changed from 2.13 reais to 2.12 reais.
The Focus Bulletin also pointed out that direct foreign investment, which produces jobs, is growing. Forecasts for this year increased from US$ 18.3 billion to US$ 19.45 billion when the last two researches are compared.
ABr
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I think that it is going to be much less than 4.1% discounting the inflation rate.The so called analysts always get their forecast wrong regarding the Brazilian economy.Anyone who has gone to the Supermarkets to buy basic groceries knows how to project the inflation rate as well as growth rate of the GNP.